Persuant to my previous post today, here are my predictions for polical alliances as I see them developing - should the world decend into a great war in the next few years. The flashpoint is still to be seen.
I will catagorise them in terms of 'allies', 'neutrals', 'axis', 'resistance' as I think four broad catagories will develop. I used 'axis' and 'allies' by the current American administration's definition - not by WWII terms.
The Allies: US, UK, Australia, Isreal, Pakistan, Spain, Phillipines and a few odds and ends.
Neutrals: Scandanavia, Russia, Switzerland, Japan and a few others who will start neutral but will end up conquered. Most of South America will remain neutral, as will much of Southern Africa.
'Axis': Most Arab states except Pakistan, plus North Korea and a few other dissident south-asian states.
'Resistance': Most of Europe, China, India and perhaps Turkey and a few others.
The Allies will be those actively fighting the 'War on Terror' but have overstepped their bounds and begin to become the ultimate global agressor. Their principle targets will be those in the 'Axis', whom they will beat down with little difficulty (with exception perhaps in North Korea). During the Occupation phase, tensions will rise greatly between the Allies and those of the Resistance. The Allies will be upset at them for not coming to their assistance, or helping them with the occupation. Flashpoints will develop in Europe and East-Asia that will pit the conquiering Allies against the Resistance. They will be accused of 'harbouring armies/terrorists' of their enemies, and may be raided. Should the allies raid Turkey or India or a few others among the resistance that have good standing in the world, the Resistance will finally say that 'enough is enough'. They will take the fight to the Allies and fight it on their own turf, leaving the 'axis' to fight for their freedom in their own lands. This is the height of the war, with nearly 3/4 of the Earth's population involved in some war or another. Nukes will fly, but it will not end it this time (and the nuking will be minimal, since all out apocolypse is possible otherwise... none of the factions want that.) The US will use the first nuke.
Eventually, Europe will be united under the resistance, with the exception of the Scandanavian countries and Russia - the UK and Spain will have turned, when their politcal support disintegrated. (Think Italy, WWII.) North America will be under one flag 'America'. Israel will have been wiped out. India will be suffering from fallout, and will have incurred heavy casualties. Australia will have withdrawn part-way through the war and turned Neutral (NZ stayed neutral right through). The climate will have changed so dramatically that a new problem, revolving around food will develop. Scirmishes will be fought for decades over control of arable land, but of which was destroyed.
Russia will emerge strong from the issue, having watched it in passing, for the most part, although Chechnya (spelling?) may be in smoldering ruins. China will also emerge strong, and with good relations with Japan. Together, using Russian technology, they will establish a permanent space presence. *hurrah!*
America will be in shambles - with the Canadian and Mexican sides mingling, warlords will develop, and it will soon be a Third World country, worse for terror that it ever was before the war.
The South-Asian countries will emerge the strongest of the surviving Islamic states, and Indonesia will lead them in the rebuilding process. East Asia (aside from China, Japan) will be mostly ruined, as they are each time a dispute spills into their lands. The Phillipines likely will have been destroyed again.
In the meantime, the Internet will die. Sad really, but one couldn't have this global exchange permissable during a war.
And lastly, the worlds population will have been significantly diminished - dwarfing all previous wars as the sun dwarves the earth. A billion dead is not unreasonable.
The funny thing is -- in 50 years, they'll do it again. With different countries, and different factions. Only those that have established themselves in space in the interim will be spared that time, as it's likely that 50 years from now, a biological agent could wipe out the Earth. A pity really -- I like the place...
Be safe...
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